Merch Gwyar posted her insights on RuneScape's economy and in all honesty I am a bit flustered about it. You see, I don't believe it. I don't believe there is such a thing as hyperinflation in the RS economy, however nice it sounds. I will concur there are price changes that defy the 'norm' (if there even is such a thing as 'norm').
The example given as proof of hyperinflation is the price of ranger boots, and of course they have changed dramatically over a period of time. But hyperinflation? I don't think so. Let's take a look at something that is considered to be a normal item. Iron ore for instance.
When I started playing (in 2005) iron ore could be had for 90-125 gp. The current price on the GE is 203gp (down 3 from yesterday). That doesn't sound like hyperinflation to me. It sounds more like a steady raise of around 8-10% per year. Still inflation, but hyper? So maybe another article? Cowhide? Again the comparison with 2005: 100-150 back in the days where the listed GE price is 212 at the moment. That, once more, doesn't sound like hyperinflation to me.
Maybe I am looking at the wrong articles, so let me change directions. Guthan's Warspear used to be around the 6.5m mark, and I am sure about that, I got killed, lost one, had to buy it again; but now it sells for 1.5m. That is deflation, not inflation. Dharok's helmet shows the same decline in price.
Let's go back to ranger boots. Again 2005: 600k back then, and again I am pretty sure about that price: I did my lvl 2 clues faithfully and training range at Pyrefiends got me a fair number of them. Three of those resulted in ranger boots: One I sold, one I died with (and subsequently lost), one I still have. Yup, that is inflation, and you could call it hyperinflation since the price rose way more than, say, 10% per year.
But does that mean the whole economy is burdened by hyperinflation? Or are it just a few items that, for one reason or another, suffers from increases beyond what one would expect?
Are price changes dependent on other factors than 'mere economy'? Again 'if memory serves': there was a huge increase of the price of raw material when skill capes were introduced. With the introduction of the GE, to combat RWT, the general economy lost the input of raw materials by botting. And we all applauded that action. The funny thing is this: It doesn't seem there is a substantial impact of the loss of those raw materials: Prices are higher than before the 'extinction' of bots, but not by a zillion percentage.
So the only thing suffering are rare and semi-rare items. Rares I won't look at: Since the supply of those doesn't change (the number stays the same/will only decrease when one owning drops out of the game or dies with one) it can only be expected the price of those will rise more than items that have a renewable source. That leaves us with the semi-rares. The ranger boots, the god swords, the 3rd age items and all those other items that take hard work, zillion of tries, and multiple deaths to acquire. In short, items that take hard work, perseverance, to get. And therein, in my humble opinion, lies the crux of the matter. Hard work.
The work you need to do to get such an item. And, if the price rise is the way to judge it, more and more players are not willing to put in the work to get it, and so the price goes up. But that is not hyperinflation... That is the economy at work...
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
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Ok! That makes a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteRemember that when I'm using these words, it's mostly a case of me reading/hearing it somewhere in relation to the game, then going to look up what it all means. You've swayed me in the opposite direction now. Thanks!
Anal much.
ReplyDeleteit's difficult to gain a good measure of inflation by looking at specific goods, not accessible to the majority of players. a better method would be to average the price increases of a diverse set of widely used items, possibly weighted by estimates of item volumes.
ReplyDeleteSo while there may be inflation, very few people lose out. The only ones who do are those with large amounts of cash who don't play for a long time.
ReplyDeleteLets say you have a huge inventory of random goods in your bank and you don't play for a few years. Yes, the prices of some goods will fall because there's more supply b/c Jagex changed something. But the prices of most other goods has risen. So your net worth will increase roughly proportionately to the inflation in the economy.
Now lets say you have no goods, you're a new player or a player who produces a lot but turns over all the goods you produce into the market. Now when you produce, you are getting nominally more money for your goods.
So what I think we have here is a decently high amount of nominal inflation, but there is somewhat of a lack of real inflation. That is to say, what cost 100 gp 3 years ago may cost 1000 gp now. But it is just as easy to earn 1000 gp now as it was to earn 100 gp 3 years ago.